'Grand Theft Auto V' Could Earn Over $200M From Digital Sales In 12 Months

The ‘GTA V’ money-train shows no signs of stopping.

Grand Theft Auto V and its online component could earn over $200M in the first 12 months off of DLC and micro-transactions.

That’s according to research firm SuperData.

“Assuming a couple add-on releases, and based on what we know about digital revenues from other console games, Take-Two will see $165M from DLC in the first year of the game,” the firm predicts.

Micro-transactions will earn less, accounting for another $41M over the next year.

“Take-Two is testing the microtransaction waters with a playerbase that may be largely unfamiliar with them,” according to the firm. “It’s also introducing it in a game environment that, unlike an MMO, does not require in-game items to progress. GTA’s microtransactions will merely let players acquire items faster, so the conversion rate will be lower than free-to-play games.”

They continue: “Over the game’s five-year lifetime, we estimate total digital content revenues to ring in at $93M for microtransactions, and $344M for DLC.”

This, of course, is on top of retail sales which topped $1B in just three days.

Another $400M in continued digital revenue over the next five years is an impressive figure, and a way to extend the revenue stream of a franchise that has historically been single-player, with most sales accounted for in the first few weeks at retail.

To put it into perspective, SuperData says thatBorderlands 2, another Take-Two property, sold just $10M in digital sales in its first year, though it had a much smaller player base.

The success of Take-Two in the microtransaction business on consoles will be “an important barometer for the future of the revenue model” the firm contends. This is especially true with next-gen just around the corner, with both Sony and Microsoft promising greener pastures for non-traditional revenue models.

For my part, I remain dubious.

It’s not that free-to-play or a hybrid model can’t work, it’s that it can also create a very precarious playing field, where even the smallest nudge can throw out game balance. Video games require a level playing field, and I can’t help but wonder how microtransactions might affect play in a game like Grand Theft Auto Online.

Even acquiring items faster through real money transactions can be, in a broader sense, paying to win—even if those items are available to non-paying gamers.

DLC, on the other hand, is easier to get right. Especially in a content-rich game like GTA V, DLC can be a great way to give players more game without giving off the impression that any of that material was simply withheld from the original game.